Raiders
Get a stop on 3rd down
84%
+16 pts
Force a punt or a field goal attempt here and the Raiders control the clock with a 4- or 1-point lead.
46% likely
Sunday Night Football · Week 11
Chiefs at Raiders
Model updated after every snap
Live win probability
Raiders +4% last play
68%
Raidersto win
32%
Chiefs
LVEvenKC
Allegiant StadiumCBS
LV
Raiders
7–3
24
Q46:42
KC
Chiefs
6–4
20
2nd & 7 at LV 38
Chiefs ball · Drive: 8 plays, 37 yds, 3:51
KCLV
102030405040302010
Last play: P. Mahomes pass short right to T. Kelce for 3 yards. Tackled by M. Crosby.
What needs to happen
Next 2 possessionsChiefs
Touchdown on this drive
62%
+30 pts
A Chiefs TD flips the lead to 27–24 with roughly 3:00 left and Las Vegas holding two timeouts.
31% likely
Raiders
Two first downs after taking over
96%
+28 pts
Burning Kansas City’s last timeout and running out the clock seals it without needing more points.
39% likely
Chiefs
Turnover inside the 40
59%
+27 pts
A takeaway in Raiders territory gives the Chiefs a short field and a real shot at the win.
9% likely
Win probability flow
Raiders Chiefs
100%
50%
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Team stats
LVKC
- Total yards 318
- Passing 247
- Rushing 71
- Time of poss. 24:04
- 3rd down 4/10
342
221
121
29:14
6/11